Metabolic syndrome in adolescence: can it be predicted from natal and parental profile? The Prediction of Metabolic Syndrome in Adolescence (PREMA) study.

BACKGROUND There are well-established predisposing factors for the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in childhood or adolescence, but no specific risk profile has been identified as yet. The Prediction of Metabolic Syndrome in Adolescence (PREMA) study was conducted (1) to construct a classification score that could detect children at high risk for MetS in adolescence and (2) to test its predictive accuracy. METHODS AND RESULTS In the derivation cohort (1270 children), data from natal and parental profile and from initial laboratory assessment at 6 to 8 years of age were used to detect independent predictors of MetS at 13 to 15 years of age according to the International Diabetes Federation definition. In the validation cohort (1091 adolescents), the discriminatory capacity of the derived prediction score was tested on an independent adolescent population. MetS was diagnosed in 105 adolescents in the derivation phase (8%), whereas birth weight <10th percentile (odds ratio, 6.02; 95% confidence interval, 2.53-10.12, P<0.001), birth head circumference <10th percentile (odds ratio, 4.15; 95% confidence interval, 2.04-7.14, P<0.001), and parental overweight or obesity (in at least 1 parent; odds ratio, 3.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-5.29, P<0.01) were independently associated with diagnosis of MetS in adolescence. Among adolescents in the validation cohort (86 [8%] with MetS), the presence of all these 3 predictors predicted MetS with a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 98%. CONCLUSIONS The coexistence of low birth weight, small head circumference, and parental history of overweight or obesity may be useful for detection of children at risk of developing MetS in adolescence.